Week 2: Time Series Fundamentals - Mini Project

Mini-Project: Flu Forecasting with ARIMA

🎯 Project Goals

1. Download influenza data from Project Tycho
2. Fit ARIMA model to one state’s data
3. Make 4-week ahead forecasts

📓 Notebooks

• ARIMA example - with synthetic data

• Synthetic data - how to make synthetic data, by hand

• ARIMA for monthly measles counts - I couldn’t find the daily flu counts I was expecting

Resources

Core Reading

• An Overview of Forecast Analysis with ARIMA Models during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodology and Case Study in Brazil - PMC10631421
  • Focus on ARIMA section

Mini-Project Instructions

• Download influenza data from Project Tycho
• Fit ARIMA model to one state’s data
• Make 4-week ahead forecasts

Resources

• How to Create an ARIMA Model for Time Series Forecasting in Python

Part 2 of the 10-Week Course: Learning About Transformers for Epidemic Forecasting